A short history of the earnings landmine
Some earnings
looked routine.
Then the company, its industry, or the world changed faster than the priced range. We study those moments to find the next setup the market may be treating as ordinary.
From the casebook
02 examplesOutside moves · not a predictive track record
The evidence, with caveats
Two times the range
wasn't enough.
Historical examples · not a validated strategy
The question we keep asking
What other companies
are waiting to explode?
These examples do not prove that a large earnings move can be predicted. They show the kind of mismatch we look for: a modest market hurdle paired with a concrete regime change, business mechanism, or expectation the market may still be anchoring to.
See today's radar ↓Before looking at companies
The world picture
Stock-agnostic · facts and interpretation separated
Current radar · loading
Why it is on the radar
How to read this
A landmine is a setup,
not a prediction.
We treat the rough options-implied move as the hurdle, not the filter. Company and macro evidence are analyzed for a plausible nonlinear mechanism that could clear it. The outmove score is an opinionated research judgment, not a probability or directional call.
View the recorded presentation fixture ↗One useful email
The blast radius,
once a week.
Get the sharpest setup in your inbox. No trade alerts. No noise.
Subscribe on Substack ↗